Tag Archives: confidence

2016 Predictions

Below are the probabilities I assign to different events happening in the next year. I’ll revisit this post in January of 2017. Politics/World: Trump will be elected president: 10% Clinton will be elected president: 65% Sanders will be elected president: … Continue reading

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2015 Predictions – Outcomes

Below are the probabilities I assigned to different events happening in 2015, along with the outcomes. Summary section at the end. Politics/World: 1. On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > … Continue reading

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Confusion about 50% Probabilities

About a month ago I started using PredictionBook. The idea is that you record how confident you are that certain events will happen, and then later compare how confident you were against whether or not the events actually did or … Continue reading

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