Category Archives: Eloise

Emotions

When is criticizing other people’s emotions appropriate? Is it ever appropriate? Should you criticize someone who’s upset about a small thing? Should you criticize someone who’s afraid of non-poisonous spiders? Should you criticize a pedophile for being attracted to children? Someone who’s … Continue reading

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A-typical Mind Fallacy

a-typical mind fallacy (noun) : thinking the minds of others are so inscrutable that we couldn’t possibly say anything about the beliefs or values of other people A: “I know bed nets save lives, but isn’t it arrogant for you to … Continue reading

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Weird Obesity Things

Weird obesity things: Animals like feral rodents and lab animals are fatter now than a few decades ago http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/278/1712/1626 Something something gut bacteria Identical twin mice were given intestinal microbes collected from either obese women or thin women. The mice … Continue reading

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2016 Predictions

Below are the probabilities I assign to different events happening in the next year. I’ll revisit this post in January of 2017. Politics/World: Trump will be elected president: 10% Clinton will be elected president: 65% Sanders will be elected president: … Continue reading

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2015 Predictions – Outcomes

Below are the probabilities I assigned to different events happening in 2015, along with the outcomes. Summary section at the end. Politics/World: 1. On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > … Continue reading

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Confusion about 50% Probabilities

About a month ago I started using PredictionBook. The idea is that you record how confident you are that certain events will happen, and then later compare how confident you were against whether or not the events actually did or … Continue reading

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The Health Effects of Vegan and Vegetarian Diets

There seem to be a lot of people who are highly confident that veg*n diets are either very good for human health or very bad for it. Because studies about the health effects of veg*nism often contradict each other, and show … Continue reading

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