2016 Predictions

Below are the probabilities I assign to different events happening in the next year. I’ll revisit this post in January of 2017.

Politics/World:
Trump will be elected president: 10%
Clinton will be elected president: 65%
Sanders will be elected president: 1%
No federal-level US politicians will be assassinated: 99%
There will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people: 85%
World War III will happen: 1%
At the end of the year AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity: 85%
GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly): 20%

Personal:
I will have a baby: 1%
I will end the year still living in the Boston area: 90%
I will complete at least 1 Kaggle competition: 99%
I will complete at least 2 Kaggle competitions: 92%
I will complete 3 or more Kaggle competitions: 75%
I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook: 95%
I will have >365 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook: 75%
I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year: 92%
I will be a vegan at the end of the year: 5%
Sam will be a vegetarian, pescetarian, or vegan at the end of the year: 1%
I will post 5 or more blog posts: 50%
Sam will post 5 or more blog posts: 75%
I will not identify as religious by the end of 2016: 99%
I will go to the emergency room, for myself or someone else: 15%
Sam will attend grad school: 35%
We’ll buy a new car: 25%
I will run a marathon: 20%
I will attend Burning Man: 91%
Sam will attend Burning Man: 93%
I will make >5 new drawings that I like enough to post in my Facebook album: 70%
I will end up being underconfident on these predictions: 50%

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