2015 Predictions

Below are the probabilities I assign to different events happening in the next year. I’ll revisit this post in January of 2016.

Politics/World:
1. On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.10: 50%
2. On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be < $3.50: 85%
3. North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country): 90%
4. There will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people: 85%
5. We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US: 75%
6. At the end of the year AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity: 75%
7. At the end of the year GiveDirectly will still be a GiveWell recommended charity: 85%

Blog:
8. I will post at least 5 blog posts: 95%
9. I will post at least 12 blog posts: 75%
10. I will post more than 25 blog posts: 10%
11. Sam will post at least 5 blog posts: 90%
12. Sam will post at least 12 blog posts: 70%
13. Sam will post more than 25 blog posts: 15%

Personal:
14. I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year: 90%
15. I will be a vegan at the end of the year: 5%
16. Sam will be a vegetarian or a pescetarian at the end of the year: 5%
17. Sam will be a vegan at the end of the year: 1%
18. We will end the year still living in the Cambridge area: 90%
19. We will end the year living in a Rationalist house: 10%
20. I will still work for my current company: 85%
21. Sam will still be involved with the morality lab: 75%
22. I will read at least 15 books: 90%
23. We will sell the car: 45%
24. I will attend Burning Man: 95%
25. Sam will attend Burning Man: 90%
26. My computer will require repairs or replacement: 15%
27. Sam’s computer will require repairs or replacement: 20%
28. I will lose my wallet: 10%
29. I will run at least 1 marathon: 20%
30. Wumpus will still be alive: 90%
31. We will have a baby: 1%

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Eloise and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to 2015 Predictions

  1. lancesbush says:

    First post ever? I look forward to seeing what the two of you post about. Eloise, are these your predictions, and will Sam’s also appear here? I’d like to see some more things added to this list. For instance, the probability that we find out we are living in a simulation.

    Like

    • sanerthanlasagna says:

      Yes, these are my predictions! At the bottom of the post it’s categorized as “Eloise”, although we should maybe implement a more elegant solution for indicating authorship. Sam isn’t planning on making predictions this year. I put the probability of finding out we’re living in a simulation in my lifetime (not just in the next year) at far less than 1%.
      -Eloise

      Like

  2. kgagne says:

    “We will end the year with an employment rate > 6%: 75%”

    Given that we’re currently at 94.2%, I think you can change this prediction to 100%!

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s